The US Fed interest rate decision, domestic inflation data and global trends would be key driving factors in dictating movement in the market this week, as the Lok Sabha elections outcome and the RBI policy decision are behind us, analysts said. The past week was a roller-coaster ride for investors as markets swung sharply in both directions before closing with strong gains.
The value of FPIs (Foreign Portfolio Investors) holding in Indian equities reached $738 billion in the three months ended December 2023, marking a surge of 13 per cent from the preceding quarter, driven by the strong performance of the domestic stock market, according to a report by Morningstar. The value of FPIs investment was at $651 billion in the September quarter of the current fiscal. On a year-on-year basis, the value of such investments rose 26 per cent from $584 billion in December 2022.
Foreign investors continued their relentless selling in the Indian equity markets in August, offloading shares worth Rs 21,201 crore due to the unwinding of the yen carry trade, recession fears in the US and ongoing geopolitical conflicts. This came after an inflow of Rs 32,365 crore in July and Rs 26,565 crore in June, data with the depositories showed.
They have been on an unbroken selling streak since the Union Budget, spooked by increase in income-tax surcharge, taxes on buybacks, and lack of stimulus to prop up the economy.
Education loan growth is set to halve this fiscal (FY26) because disbursements for the US decelerate following a raft of policy changes there.
Investors should avoid making drastic changes to their asset allocation during a market correction.
Banks are set to make treasury gains in the fourth quarter of the current financial year (2024-25) as the yield on government bonds has softened so far this quarter, driven by strong inflows into the debt segment, market participants said. The yield on the 10-year benchmark government bond fell 8 basis points (bps) in the previous week - the steepest weekly decline in four months, since November 30, 2024 - to settle at 6.62 per cent.
It is welcome that the government tried to make its intentions clear last week - especially as risk concerns return to global markets.
'The economy is clearly at a very soft spot, and earnings growth is disappointing every day.' 'After three great years, the Indian economy has hit a rough patch.'
Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have withdrawn over Rs 12,000 crore from Indian equities this month so far, mainly due to a sustained rise in US bond yields and the uncertain environment resulting from the Israel-Hamas conflict. However, the story takes an intriguing turn on observing FPI activity in Indian debt as they have infused over Rs 5,700 crore into the debt market during the period under review, data with the depositories showed. Going ahead, the trajectory of FPIs' investments in India will be influenced not only by global inflation and interest rate dynamics but also by the developments and intensity of the Israel-Hamas conflict, Himanshu Srivastava, associate director - manager research, Morningstar Investment Adviser India, said.
India's hospitality sector is rolling out the red carpet for investors. A flurry of upcoming IPOs, or initial public offerings, the entry of new players, and ambitious expansion plans by Indian and global hotel brands are ushering in what could be the industry's most formalised era yet. Leading the charge are real estate titans, who are turning their hotel arms into global hospitality chains.
Jayshree P Upadhyay ' Mumbai September 9, 2014 Last Updated at 22:50 IST Top Stocks to Buy in 2014 8-10 Best Stocks for 2014 per month Highly Accurate Calls, Free Trial stockaxis.com/Stocks-to-buy-in-2014 Ads by Google 3 Add to My Page RELATED NEWS Foreign investor cap in bourses may be raised Sebi sets foreign portfolio investor limit of 10% per firm Sebi move on FPI regime grounded No clarity yet on FPI regime Jaimini Bhagwati: Correcting tax and disclosure anomalies Karbonn Titanium S5 Plus Be 1st to own latest Android phone with Dual SIM, 8 MP Camera & more!www.karbonnmobiles.com/S5_Plus 1Cr Life Cover @ Rs 543* Compare Premium of 46 Insurers Buy Online and save upto 55%www.policybazaar.com/TermInsur_Rate Ads by Google In a move that could increase the stake of foreign investors in Indian stock exchanges, the government is considering a threefold increase in the single-investor investment ceiling. Currently,a foreign portfolio investor (FPI) investment in an exchange is capped at five per cent. The finance ministry has written to the regulatory authorities to increase the ceiling to 15 per cent, said sources. The proposal is said to have in-principle approval from the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) and the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). The move would bring the FPI investment limit in line with those for financial institutions such as insurance companies and banks. NEW POLICY IN THE WORKS Single foreign investor limit in exchanges to be revised from 5% to 15% Sebi and RBI have given in-principle approval to the proposal Government to amend foreign investment policy BSE has 8 foreign shareholders holding 31% stake NSE has close to 20 foreign shareholders holding 36% stake The government allowed the foreign investors to invest in stock exchanges in 2006, with an overall cap of 49 per cent. This latter cap is likely to be unchanged. BSE and the National Stock Exchange (NSE), the two large nationwide bourses, are likely to benefit from the increase in limits. BSE has eight foreign investors, which cumulatively own about 31 per cent in it. The shareholding of Deutsche Boerse Group and Singapore Exchange Ltd are a little below the five per cent ceiling. NSE has about 20 foreign shareholders, holding around 36 per cent. Cyprus' Gagil and Goldman Sachs own five per cent each; Citi Group has around two per cent. "The finance ministry has received representations stating that the present limit of five per cent is a deterrent in attracting long-term anchor and strategic foreign investors in stock exchanges. Following which, the ministry has sought comments from both Sebi and RBI," said a person privy to the matter. A higher foreign investor limit will not only encourage more investment in Indian bourses but help in exchange of technology and products, said exchange officials. "A five per cent limit on the shareholding of any single investor or investor group is too small to encourage them to take sufficient interest in growth of the exchange," said an official associated with one, asking not to be named. The regulator and the government are also mulling a change in the shareholding of clearing corporations, which could also see individual foreign investors' cap being increased to 15 per cent. Some sections of the market believe that allowing a single FPI to own 15 per cent in a exchange could be detrimental to having a diversified shareholding. The Bimal Jalan committee, in the previous review of ownership and governance of stock exchanges in 2010, had debated whether there was a need to revise the cap. It was in favour of having an anchor investor, such as a bank or financial institution, which would own up to 24 per cent. Read more on: Fpi ' Sebi ' Rbi ' Nse ' Foreign Investor ' Singapore Exchange ' Finance Ministry Read More Investors vie for shares of stock exchanges Pick-up in sentiment, volumes boost bourses' unlisted shares HDFC Life Click2Protect+ Get Lump Sum + Monthly Income Benefit* @ Affordable Rate. Buy Now hdfclife.com/Click2ProtectPlus Retirement Calculator Plan Your Retirement Online in 2Min Calculate & Compare Premium Here! policybazaar.com/Retirement Ads by Google Advertisements Get a freedom to choose your own plan. Click here to know more... Data transforming the match-making business. click here Open a free Trading & Demat A/c with Sharekhan Leadership and Corporate Accountability-India. Click here Great fares to Europe from INR 54,000* Amsterdam. Click here Start Investing with the best Broker in india Important Facts about Infant Hearing Screening Gifting Solutions. Make easy & perfect! Find out what converged solutions can do for you. Smart Cloud Virtualized Server Recovery. Learn more. The perfect drive the perfect style. Book a test drive 3 Add to My Page Back to Top Quick Links Go LATEST NEWSAll NewsIn this section Ebola threatening Liberia's existence, minister warns IS threatens to assassinate Twitter employees Motherson Sumi, Eicher Motors, TVS Motor gain inclusion in F&O segment ABG, Bharati Shipyard rallies on hopes of government sops Pre-market: Five stocks to watch out for in trade today US manufacturing industry pushes India for free trade Dollar gains on Fed outlook, hurts shares Wall St ends lower as Apple shares fall post launch Ukraine ceasefire 'mostly holding': US Flipkart launches third private label Citron News you can use Rss icon Errors to avoid when filing returns What is Gratuity? What are NEFT and RTGS? Check your Income Tax Credit credit status form-26AS online Saving capital gain tax on sale of property Calculate tax on your house property income How to Check your EPF Balance & status online Featured Videos iPhone killers? The biggest threats to Apple's dominance video Jaguar takes the battle to BMW video The 5 biggest IPOs in U.S. history video Here is the next-gen spy plane... a blimp video MOST POPULARReadSharedCommented Supreme Court reserves order on coal block allocations Apple launches Watch, two iPhones & Apple Pay Guj rains: Hundreds evacuated in Vadodara, Army on stand-by Neel Mukherjee's book in Man Booker shortlist Mumbai airport keeps airlines guessing on Airbus A380 parking bay Market News A fourth of mutual fund equity assets concentrated in 10 stocks ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank, Infosys, SBI and L&T among fund managers' preferred bets Den Networks: Investing in new growth avenues Its tie-up with Snapdeal to launch a shopping TV channel looks like a win-win deal Sensex, Nifty retreat from record highs on profit taking The BSE Sensex and Nifty fell on Tuesday from their record highs in the previous session as investors chose to book profits in recent ... High agri imports under govt lens Dept of commerce seeks ideas to curb import dependence for supply of commodities, writes to sector bodies MCX hopes FTIL stake sale will conclude by month-end The exchange's clarification came in the wake of FMC rejecting its demand to allow approvals for contracts for the March quarter of 2015.
Her reasoning is simple, "It's a Tata company. No shareholder will let go of this opportunity," she told Business Standard. When asked if the other reason for lining up for the IPO is the technology sector and the fact that the combination of Tata and tech is happening after almost two decades, she replied: "The name of the company and the group matter. Tata means stability and credibility," she added.
'He will be remembered more for what he did as finance minister -- as someone who functioned well when the political fallout was taken care of.'
IPOs worth Rs 50,000 crore including Hyundai, NTPC Green Energy and Swiggy are set to hit the market in late October or early November.
'Investors can consider staying invested in long duration products as there is a possibility of rate cuts in the near term.' Positive macros - lower inflation, high forex reserves and favourable demand-supply dynamics for government bonds - make a strong case for rate cuts from December, says Devang Shah, head of fixed income, Axis Mutual Fund. In an interview with Abhishek Kumar in Mumbai, Shah says this view may not hold true if commodity prices go up sharply.
Though retail investors accounted for a larger number of outstanding shares of the NSE-listed companies at 15.29 per cent, the combined value of their holding was Rs 9.16 trillion. This was much lower than the value of holding of FPIs and DIIs.
The ownership by domestic investors, individual as well as institutional, in companies listed on the National Stock Exchange (NSE) has breached the 25 per cent mark for the first time. The share stood at 25.72 per cent at the end of the March 2023 quarter, up from 24.44 per cent in the previous quarter, according to data from Prime Database. The share of foreign portfolio investors (FPIs), meanwhile, rose slightly to 20.56 per cent from 20.24 per cent as on December 31, 2022.
Equity mutual funds witnessed an inflow of Rs 35,943 crore in November, marking a drop of 14 per cent on a month-on-month basis, amid heightened volatility in stock markets driven by various macroeconomic factors, geopolitical events and US election results. Despite this, it marked the 45th consecutive month of net inflows into equity-oriented funds, reflecting the growing popularity of mutual funds among investors, according to data from the Association of Mutual Funds in India (AMFI) released on Tuesday.
On a five-day rolling basis, FPI selling is the highest in 24 years.
HDFC Bank, Reliance Industries and ICICI Bank remained among the top mutual fund (MF) buys for the second consecutive month in September. MFs deployed a net of Rs 15,000 crore into these stocks during the two-month period (August-September), revealed Nuvama Alternative & Quantitative Research reports.
Among Sensex shares, HCLTech, Asian Paints, Maruti, JSW Steel, TCS, SBI, ITC and Bharti Airtel were the major losers. On the other hand, Bajaj Finserv, Mahindra & Mahindra, Titan, L&T and Wipro were the major gainers.
Fundraising momentum is expected to accelerate further in the New Year, potentially surpassing 2024's record figures
Unperturbed by election uncertainty, investors poured record sums into equity mutual fund (MF) schemes in May, driving India closer to a $5 trillion market capitalisation. The Rs 34,697 crore net inflows into actively managed equity funds last month surpassed the previous high of Rs 28,463 crore recorded in March 2022. In April 2024, equity schemes had garnered nearly Rs 19,000 crore.
The current spurt in the stock market is on account of strong fundamentals and robust corporate earnings and retail investors can look for buying opportunities to accumulate quality stocks, experts said.
The Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) has permitted 100 per cent contribution from non-resident Indians (NRIs) and overseas citizens of India (OCIs) in the corpus of foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) based out of Gujarat International Finance Tec-City (GIFT City), the country's international financial services centre (IFSC). However, the Indian diaspora is yet to fully embrace this new route. The regulator allowed this route to enhance the fund ecosystem at GIFT City and attract genuine investments from overseas Indians.
Stock markets will be largely driven by global trends in the absence of any major domestic triggers this week, say analysts. The trading activity of foreign investors, global crude oil prices and rupee-dollar movement will also influence market movement, they said. "Anticipating a period of consolidation in the absence of clear global cues, the market's trajectory will likely hinge on the movement of the US bond yields, the dollar index, and crude oil prices, as well as institutional flows.
The share of foreign loans in total Adani group debt portfolio dropped to 61 per cent by September 2023 from 63 per cent as of March 2023, as the group repaid part of its foreign loans and refinanced part of older loans. The share of Indian lenders, on the other hand, rose to 39 per cent in the total debt pie in September 2023 from 37 per cent in March after a report by US-based short seller Hindenburg Research in January last year, which led to volatility in the share prices of group companies. The group's total debt remained static at Rs 2.26 trillion in the same period.
Foreign investors made a significant turnaround and injected over Rs 1,500 crore into Indian equities in February, reversing the massive outflows seen in the preceding month, primarily due to robust corporate earnings and positive economic growth. Additionally, Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) continued to be bullish on the debt markets as they put in over Rs 22,419 crore during the month under review, data with the depositories showed. Looking ahead to March, the outlook for FPI flow appears promising, provided the current economic trajectory and corporate performance sustain their positive momentum, potentially continuing to attract foreign investment into Indian equities, Mayank Mehraa, smallcase manager and principal partner at Craving Alpha, said.
The Indian rupee is likely to depreciate further against the US dollar through the end of 2024. This is due to the continued strengthening of the greenback, combined with the weakening of the Chinese yuan, which is expected to keep pressure on the Indian currency.
Domestic equity markets, which are at record high levels, will be driven by quarterly earnings, global trends and foreign fund movement, analysts said. The movement of rupee and global oil benchmark Brent crude will also be tracked by investors. "The direction of global stock markets, fluctuations in the rupee-to-dollar exchange rate, and movement in crude oil prices will all play a crucial role in influencing the overall market trend.
'Challenge is basically near-term growth as the outlook has turned a bit adverse.'
Indian rupee has declined by about 25 per cent since December 31, 2014, and is nearing 80 against the dollar, the Lok Sabha was informed on Monday. The value of the rupee declined from 63.33 against a dollar on December 31, 2014, to 79.41 on July 11, 2022, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said in a reply quoting RBI data. The exchange rate of the Indian Rupee against the dollar was Rs 78.94 per dollar as of June 30, 2022, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said in a written reply.
Investors should tilt their portfolios towards domestic-facing defensive sectors, which should help provide stability and shield them from geopolitical and tariff risks.
Among the Sensex firms, PowerGrid, IndusInd Bank, Larsen & Toubro, Nestle, HCL Tech, Axis Bank, Tata Motors, HDFC Bank, Tata Consultancy Services and HDFC were the major winners. Bajaj Finserv, NTPC, Reliance Industries and Kotak Mahindra Bank were the biggest laggards.
Among the Sensex firms, UltraTech Cement, Reliance Industries, ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank, Bharti Airtel, IndusInd Bank, State Bank of India, Tata Consultancy Services, Larsen & Toubro, Kotak Mahindra Bank and State Bank of India were the major gainers. In contrast, Tata Motors, Maruti, Axis Bank, Mahindra & Mahindra, ITC, NTPC, Tata Steel and Bajaj Finserv were the major laggards.
RBI's interest rate decision, macroeconomic data, global trends and trading activity of foreign investors are the crucial factors to drive equity markets in a holiday-shortened week ahead, analysts said. Markets would remain closed on Monday for Gandhi Jayanti. "While global cues will continue to dictate trends in local markets, focus will shift to RBI's monetary policy announcement on Friday. "Although the market is expecting a status quo on interest rates, global concerns like rising US dollar index and bond yields coupled with surging crude oil prices continue to weigh on investors' minds.
In the Sensex pack, Asian Paints, Larsen & Toubro, Titan, IndusInd Bank, Bharti Airtel, Power Grid, Bajaj Finserv, Infosys, HDFC Bank and HDFC were the major laggards. On the other hand, Axis Bank, Tata Motors, ITC, State Bank of India, Tata Steel and Sun Pharma were among the gainers.
Investment in the Indian capital markets through participatory notes dropped to Rs 88,398 crore month-on-month in February amid higher valuation of domestic markets. This was the third consecutive monthly decline in the investment level. Before this, investment through the route had been on an increasing trend since July 2022 because of a slump in the oil and other commodities prices and the relative outperformance of Indian equity markets.
Domestic institutional investors pumped Rs 2.3 trillion into equities during H1 CY24. Of this, mutual funds contributed 80%.
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